CAPS Mathematical Literacy Grade 12: Basic Probability Concepts
Introduction
Probability is an essential concept in Mathematics that helps us understand the likelihood or chance of events occurring. With applications ranging from everyday decisionmaking to advanced scientific research, understanding probability equips learners with the tools to interpret various realworld situations.
Key Points
 Probability Definitions and Concepts:
 Event: An action or occurrence that can produce a set of outcomes (e.g., rolling a dice).
 Outcome: The result of a single trial of an event (e.g., getting a 4 on a dice roll).
 Sample Space: All possible outcomes of an event (e.g., for a dice: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}).

Probability (P): A measure of how likely an event is to occur, calculated as:
[
P(\text{Event}) = \frac{\text{Number of favorable outcomes}}{\text{Total number of possible outcomes}}
] 
Types of Probability:
 Theoretical Probability: Based on the possible outcomes in a perfect world without any actual trials. Formula:
[
P(\text{Event}) = \frac{\text{Number of favorable outcomes}}{\text{Total number of outcomes}}
] 
Experimental Probability (Empirical Probability): Based on actual experiments and past data. Formula:
[
P(\text{Event}) = \frac{\text{Number of times the event occurs}}{\text{Total number of trials}}
] 
Probability Scale:
 Expressed as a fraction, decimal, or percentage.

Ranges from 0 (impossible event) to 1 (certain event).

Mutually Exclusive Events:
 Events that cannot happen at the same time. The sum of their probabilities is always 1.

Formula (Addition Rule):
[
P(A \text{ or } B) = P(A) + P(B)
] 
Independent Events:
 Events where the occurrence of one does not affect the occurrence of the other.
 Formula (Multiplication Rule):
[
P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A) \times P(B)
]
RealWorld Applications
Example 1: Rolling a Dice
– Problem: What is the probability of rolling a 3 on a fair sixsided dice?
– Solution:
– Sample Space = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
– Favorable Outcomes for rolling a 3 = 1
– Total Possible Outcomes = 6
[
P(\text{Rolling a 3}) = \frac{1}{6} \approx 0.167 \text{ or } 16.7\%
]
Example 2: Drawing a Card from a Deck
– Problem: What is the probability of drawing a queen or a spade from a standard deck of cards?
– Solution:
– Total Cards = 52
– Queens = 4, Spades = 13 (it’s important to subtract the queen of spades counted twice)
[
P(\text{Queen or Spade}) = \frac{4}{52} + \frac{13}{52} – \frac{1}{52} = \frac{16}{52} = \frac{4}{13} \approx 0.308 \text{ or } 30.8\%
]
Common Misconceptions and Errors
 Misunderstanding Independent and Mutually Exclusive Events:
 Error: Confusing independent events (rolling a dice and flipping a coin) with mutually exclusive events (drawing a card that is either a heart or a diamond).

Strategy: Always check if the occurrence of one event affects the other and if both events can occur simultaneously.

Incorrect Probability Calculation:
 Error: Adding probabilities instead of multiplying for independent events.
 Strategy: Use the appropriate rule (addition for mutually exclusive, multiplication for independent).
Practice and Review
Basic Questions:
1. (a) If you roll a fair sixsided dice, what is the probability of getting an even number?
[
\text{Sample Space} = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
]
[
\text{Favorable Outcomes} = {2, 4, 6}
]
[
P(\text{Even number}) = \frac{3}{6} = \frac{1}{2} = 0.5 \text{ or } 50\%
]
Advanced Questions:
2. (a) From a deck, what is the probability of drawing a card that is a heart or a face card?
– Total Hearts = 13
– Total Face Cards = 12 (4 of each suit)
– Overlapping Cards (Face Cards that are Hearts) = 3
[
P(\text{Heart or Face Card}) = \frac{13}{52} + \frac{12}{52} – \frac{3}{52} = \frac{22}{52} = \frac{11}{26} \approx 0.423 \text{ or } 42.3\%
]
Connections and Extensions
 Probability connects with Statistics (e.g., predicting outcomes based on past data), Games (e.g., lotteries, sports), and Genetics (e.g., predicting trait occurrence).
Summary and Quick Review
 Probability measures the chance of an event occurring.
 Two main types: Theoretical and Experimental.
 Use a probability scale to describe the likelihood.
 Apply the addition rule for mutually exclusive events and multiplication rule for independent events.
Additional Resources
 Khan Academy – Probability
 Kuta Software for probability worksheets and practice questions.
By understanding and practicing these concepts, you will be wellprepared for your exams and capable of applying probability in various reallife scenarios.